Montag, 25. Juli 2016

Cyberwarfare and the smaller windows of oportunity for decision making II

The window of oportunity for decision making by humans will be challenged by intelligent machines:

"Intelligent assistant decision-making system is more and more important in modern war along with high-tech of weapon, complexity of battlefield and quicken of combat rhythm. For the requirement of intelligent and independence of unmanned aerial vehicle, based on the merits and advantage of probability graphical models on uncertainty inference, the tactics decision-making modeling of UAV with probability graphical models was brought forward. The modeling flow and inference algorithm of UAV based on Bayesian inference algorithm has been given out. The method has been tested with a given conditions. The simulation results have showed that the tactics decision-making models could improve the decision-making accuracy and intelligent and the algorithm is simple, perspicuity and apt realization. (Zhifu Shi ; Xi'an Research Institute of Hi-Tech Hongqing Town, Xian 710025, Shanxi, PRC ; Yaohua Guo ; Yaxiong )

In the cyber community decision making is not only a topic for an big cyber conflict but in a smaller scall on UAV or smaller operational tasks, too. Cyber war in the reflcected sense does not mean that millions of Computers are fighting a war that lasts milliseconds and leaves the world in chaos. We are not talking about a digital ICBM szenario between civilized states similar to the cold war age. Cyberwarfare in a big scale between G20 States is not very probably due to the extraordinary penalties occuring afterwards. Due to the regularies of self defence after a cyber attack, attacking another G20 State would always be a bad idea due to the different military alliances made.

In real szenarios we don`t face massive attacks but operations to support kinetic operations. This could be seen as compareable to electronic warfare operations to support air strikes. No modern air force would join a campaign without ew-backup. 

So the window of oportunity in decision making does not really close after 2 miliseconds. You would not reduce the window of oportunity to the time a bomb falls from the sky or a rockets but to the reaction to the general operation or the systems taking part like a fighter Jet.

So the reaction on cyber operations is not limited to the exact moments when the attack occurs but to the different phasis of the operation - just like today. The modern battlefield may be more dynamic today, but not only about Cyber Warfare !

So why not using technical devices to take limited decisions on the ms Level ?

Please send me your ideas on that !